Macro-CIS survey projects clear victory for Socialists

Latest CIS survey sees jump in Socialist support, possible absolute majority with Podemos. Graphic: El Diario
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The release of results of the most-recent monthly voter survey from the government’s own Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (CIS) on Tuesday shows a clear victory in upcoming 10th November general elections for the Socialist party (PSOE) of acting President Pedro Sánchez.

Accrding to the CIS results, if the upcoming election were held today the PSOE would win 32.2 percent of the overall vote for anywhere from 133-150 seats in Congress, a substantial increase over the 123 seats held by the Socialists after the last election.

The PSOE would be followed by the conservative Partido Popular (PP), with 18.1 percent of the vote for 74-81 seats; the left-wing Unidas Podemos coalition with 14.6 percent for 37-45 seats; centre-right Ciudadanos with 10.6 percent for 27-35 seats; and the ultra-right VOX party with 7.9 percent for 14-21 seats.

But the results of the survey have raised some eyebrows, as the October CIS poll bucks the trend of other private voter surveys released in recent weeks that show the PSOE tending to win no more seats in Congress than it held following the last general elections in April, as well as a tendency toward an increased vote for the PP and VOX.

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In its favour, the latest CIS survey results are based on a far-greater sampling of voter intention, having been conducted among 18,000 Spanish voters at the end of September and first two weeks of October.

Normally, CIS monthly surveys that include polling of voter sentiment are conducted among less than 3,000 respondents, with last September’s CIS survey sample enlarged to 6,000 participants. A tripling of the survey sample over the September level should ensure greater accuracy in results, under normal circumstances.

But, detractors of the CIS survey say the the polling of participants was conducted prior to three controversial events that should impact voter sentiment: the 14th October Supreme Court conviction and sentencing of Catalan pro-independence leaders, the subsequent violent protests over the court verdict in Barcelona and other Catalan cities, and the exhumation and removal from the Valley of the Fallen monument outside Madrid of the remains of former Spanish dictator Francisco Franco.

Most private polls taken in recent weeks tend to factor in those events, with suppositions being that Spanish voters will be less supportive of the Sánchez government’s handling of the situation in Catalonia and that right-wing voters in Spain will turnout in greater numbers in a show of Spanish nationalism and anger over the exhumation of Franco from a place of honour in the Basilica at the Valley of the Fallen.

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