► Socialists hold pole position at around 27-28% share of voter preference
► PP, VOX recovery not seen as sufficient to enable right-wing government
The most-recent voter preference surveys in the run-up to Spain’s 10th November general elections show the Socialist party (PSOE) of acting President Pedro Sánchez slightly down, with the conservative Partido Popular (PP) and ultra-right VOX party both recovering in the wake of last week’s eruption of violence in Catalonia, in response to the Supreme Court conviction and sentencing of Catalan pro-independence leaders on 14th October.
A summary of the most-recent polls by the daily El País newspaper, shows the PSOE maintaining the lead position among Spain’s political parties with an amalgamated average of 27.5 percent vote share, were elections to be held now, with the PP still in second place but increasing its vote share to 21.6 percent, followed by Unidas Podemos (12.3 percent), with VOX rising to fourth position (10.9 percent), Ciudadanos falling into fifth position (9.9 percent) and Más País (4.5 percent).
Similarly, a summary of most recent polls from news agency Europa Press shows the PSOE in the pole position, with 27.4 percent vote share, followed by the PP, with an estimated 21.8 of votes, Unidas Podemos (12.4 percent), VOX rising to fourth position (10.7 percent), Ciudadanos (9.9 percent) and Más País (4.5 percent).
Most analysis of the polls attributes the slight downtick for the Socialists and the recovery of the right-wing parties to voter general discontent with the way the Sánchez government handled the violence in Catalonia — with centrist and conservative voters angered by televised scenes of police being attacked by pro-independence demonstrators and upset that the Sanchez government did not order a more forceful crackdown by police forces against the violent protesters.
Despite vociferous calls last week by the leadership of Ciudadanos for an immediate crackdown on the Catalan protesters by the Sánchez government, voters have apparently not responded positively and the centre-right party remains stuck in fifth position in most polls.
Most polling analysis does not see the recovery of the PP and VOX vote in the immediate aftermath of the Catalan violence as sufficient to enable them to join with Ciudadanos to assemble a governing rightwing majority in Spain’s Congress following the 10th November elections.
If the polls hold in their present position, acting President Pedro Sánchez will again be tasked with forming a new government after the 10th November balloting, but will have to rely on support from left-wing rival Unidas Podemos and new left-of-centre party Más País, possibly with the abstention of Catalonia’s pro-independence ERC party.
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